1
Run the OBBBA Finance Stress Test
Model undergraduate and graduate/professional enrollment sensitivity under new Parent PLUS, Grad PLUS, and lifetime loan caps.
Enrollment Management Intelligence Brief
For Dr. Carol Kim
Briefing Core Signals
Five signals require recurring executive attention: demand volume, selectivity, student persistence, aid scale, and price pressure.
| Signal | 2024-25 Public Baseline | 2025-26 Current Public Signal | 2026-27 Watch / Internal Grad View |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand VolumeApplications and funnel pressure | 82,027 undergraduate first-year applications. | 83,488 undergraduate first-year applications. | Track graduate inquiries, applications, admits, deposits, deferrals, visa delay, and program yield. |
| SelectivityAdmit rate and cohort shaping | 9.8% undergraduate freshman admit rate. | 11.2% undergraduate freshman admit rate. | Review graduate admit rate, yield, seat targets, and cohort mix by school/program. |
| Student PersistenceRetention, stopout, completion | 96% freshman retention for Fall 2023 cohort. | 95% freshman retention for Fall 2024 cohort. | Track graduate continuation, leaves, stopout, completion pace, and registration holds. |
| Aid ScaleAid capacity and financing exposure | $902M total aid disbursed in 2023-24. | $904M total aid disbursed in 2024-25. | Split graduate aid internally; model Grad PLUS loss, unsubsidized caps, assistantships, and private-loan reliance. |
| Price PressureTuition, COA, affordability | $66,640 undergraduate tuition. | $73,260 undergraduate tuition. | $75,384 undergraduate tuition and $103,162 on-campus COA; rank graduate programs by tuition, debt reliance, aid availability, and international share. |
Scale + Exposure Context
| Context | Current Public Figure | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Total enrollment | 46K | 2025-26 scale: 21K undergraduate and 25K graduate/professional. |
| Graduate/professional share | 54% | Most enrollment exposure sits outside the undergraduate funnel. |
| International enrollment | 11,959 | 26.1% of Fall 2025 students; watch visa, geopolitical, and yield volatility. |
| Total aid disbursed | $904M | 2024-25 aid scale frames affordability and federal-loan sensitivity. |
OBBBA Enrollment Shock Points
Grad PLUS ends
New graduate/professional borrowers lose this financing tool after July 1, 2026.
$20.5K
Annual federal unsubsidized cap for non-professional graduate students.
$50K
Annual federal unsubsidized cap for professional students.
$20K / $65K
Parent PLUS annual and aggregate caps per dependent student.
$257.5K
Lifetime federal student loan cap across undergraduate and graduate study.
Governance Triggers
| Trigger | Enrollment Risk | Decision Need |
|---|---|---|
| Title IV / OBBBA | Borrowing limits, aid timing, verification, and repayment changes affect access and yield. | Set aid modeling, student-finance messaging, and escalation rules. |
| Title VI / Title IX / ADA | Recruitment, climate, accessibility, and support practices can affect trust and retention. | Use documented criteria and consistent cross-campus handoffs. |
| Immigration + International | Visa delay, denial, or geopolitical disruption can shift graduate and international yield. | Monitor high-exposure programs before registration and course-capacity decisions. |
First-Year Strategic Agenda
2
Build the Affordability Narrative
Move from sticker-price defense to net-price clarity, earlier aid confidence, and family-facing financing scenarios.
3
Build Enrollment Intelligence Dashboards
Connect yield, aid sensitivity, registration barriers, NPG courses, belonging, completion, debt, and career outcomes.
4
Convene School-Level Strategy Councils
Use faculty and staff partnership to align pipeline, course capacity, curriculum barriers, advising, and outcomes.
5
Unify the Admit-to-Belonging Experience
Use registration, orientation, advising handoffs, and early support as Enrollment Management levers, not separate offices.
Sources and basis: USC Facts and Stats 2025-26; USC Common Data Set 2024-2025; USC undergraduate cost-of-attendance pages for 2025-26 and 2026-27; USC brand and identity guidance for color and typography direction; USC Enrollment Management leadership communications; USC Today and Provost announcements; and OBBBA student-aid provisions summarized for enrollment planning use. Public annual points are used as executive signals; operational SPC control limits should be recalculated with internal monthly admissions, financial-aid, registration, and student-success data.